Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises: Applications to East Asia

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You are not logged in and do not have access to this content. Please login or, to subscribe to IMF eLibrary, please click here. International Monetary Fund. Powered by PubFactory. Sign in to annotate. Delete Cancel Save. Dr Frank Strobel, Senior Lecturer in Economics, said: "We have developed a new type of 'early warning system' that will provide more accurate predictions of sovereign debt crises and how long they are likely to last.


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Our system provides policymakers with time to take corrective action that would help avert, or at least mitigate, the damage associated with an approaching crisis. Until recently, early warning systems focussed on factors relating only to developing countries. Birmingham's development takes account of the causes and associated indicators of sovereign debt crises varying between different countries and regions.

Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises | SpringerLink

The study 'Predicting sovereign debt crises' was published in the Journal of Financial Stability. It compares the new system against two recently developed methods using econometrics -- the application of statistical methods to economic data. The new system developed at Birmingham was found to significantly outperform the other two methods. All three systems -- multinomial logit regression, dynamic signal extraction and the University's refined binary logit model -- use the technique of logistic regression to analyse various indicators, such as a country's exposure to debt, foreign trade, domestic growth and government expenditure.

External factors such as openness to trade behave differently around crises in Asia and Latin America, whilst domestic macroeconomic conditions seem to play the major role in Africa," Dr Strobel added.

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For higher tier countries in the region, on the other hand, sustainable growth requires not just learning existing manufacturing from others but invigoration of technological innovation. More recently, however, new types of industry driven by information technology IT have emerged that do not generate orderly and sequential development from advanced to less advanced countries.

Players in these industries compete on creativity and agility to establish new markets and networks.

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Their success does not depend on the past achievement of the home country in traditional manufacturing featuring a complex pyramidal structure of suppliers to serve a parent assembly firm. This makes it possible for a latecomer country to overtake an existing leader. South Korea has become a leading country in IT. In contrast, Japan has been slow in taking ambitious initiatives largely due to remaining government regulations.


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The Asian market of the 21st century is a place where any country, whether old timer or new comer, can be a winner. To become one of the winners, Japan must have clear strategies to reform existing industries and explore new frontiers. However, Abenomics, which is too broad and without consistent action plans, has not delivered an effective solution.

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Countries across Asia are confronted with emerging issues caused by their economic growth. Those issues are not directly attributable to the Asian Currency Crisis but have become highly visible since the Crisis. First, there is a widening gap between the rich and the poor within most countries. Others worsened or could not ameliorate income inequality while growing fast. The first group includes Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Meanwhile, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and China, particularly after the s, belong to the second group.

A Fuzzy Based Early Warning System to Predict Banking Distress on Selected Asia-Pacific Countries

Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia are about to join the latter group. More recently, even countries in the first group have begun to face new types of domestic gap as their economies have matured. If the inequality problem is left unaddressed, it will inevitably impair social stability.

Second, Asian countries confront with an aging population and declining birthrates. This demographic crisis is very acute in Japan.

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Countries such as Taiwan, South Korea and China are also experiencing the same. Other countries in Southeast Asia will surely face similar demographic challenges in a few to several decades. Will Japan, with its long struggle with the elderly problem, be able to provide model solutions to aging Asia? Other problems generated by high growth and social change are environmental destruction, urban traffic and housing congestion, corruption, generational gap, and internal and international migration of labor.

These are common challenges across Asia even though specific aspects of these problems depend on the stage of development or social structure of each country.

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